Does the NBA predict the Newbery winners?

Okay, I did some digging (well, not digging so much as compiling easily found data) to see if the National Book Award for Young People’s Literature is a good predictor of which title will win the Newbery Medal.

It looks like the first National Book Award for Young People’s Literature was presented in 1996. [A note about the appearance of date discrepancies in the comparison: Because the National Book Award is presented at the end of the year (November) and the Newbery Medal is presented at the beginning of the year (January), the 1996 National Book Award for Young People’s Literature is drawn from the same pool of books as the 1997 Newbery Medal winner. A bit confusing, but true, nonetheless.]

So, is the National Book Award for Young People’s Literature a portend of things to come in January?

Nope.

Only once have the two committees agreed, and that was on Holes by Louis Sachar. (And really -- who *did* argue with that selection?) This isn’t a bad thing, I think, since it brings more quality books for young people to the attention of the book-buying public.

So, what does this mean for The Penderwicks? Probably nothing. Just something I was wondering about and thought I might as well share since I spent time figuring it out…

(I will add links later, when I have more time.)

THE DATA:

1996
National Book Award: Parrott In the Oven: Mi Vida by Victor Martinez
1997
Newbery: The View from Saturday by E.L. Konigsburg


1997
National Book Award: Dancing on the Edge by Han Nolan
1998
Newbery: Out of the Dust by Karen Hesse

1998
National Book Award: Holes by Louis Sachar
1999
Newbery: Holes by Louis Sachar

1999
National Book Award: When Zachary Beaver Came to Town by Kimberley Willis Holt
2000
Newbery: Bud, Not Buddy by Christopher Paul Curtis

2000
National Book Award: Homeless Bird by Gloria Whelan
2001
Newbery: A Year Down Yonder by Richard Peck

2001
National Book Award: True Believer by Virginia Euwer Wolff
2002
Newbery: A Single Shard by Linda Sue Park

2002
National Book Award: The House of the Scorpion by Nancy Farmer
2003
Newbery: Crispin: The Cross of Lead by Avi

2003
National Book Award: The Canning Season by Polly Horvath
2004
Newbery: The Tale of Despereaux: Being the Story of a Mouse, a Princess, Some Soup, and a Spool of Thread by Kate DiCamillo

2004
National Book Award: Godless by Pete Hautman
2005
Newbery: Kira-Kira by Cynthia Kadohata

2005
National Book Award: The Penderwicks by Jeanne Birdsall
2006
Newbery: ?